Smart Retries get the easy ones. What's left is the revenue that needs a human touch at scale — expiring cards caught before they fail, a message in your voice with a one-tap way to pay, a winback worth sending. Connect Stripe and see exactly how much of it you're losing.
And about 8% of failed, past-due and cancelled accounts are held back untreated as a randomized control group, so the lift on your dashboard is measured against what Stripe would have recovered anyway — not a number we assert. Expiring cards are never held back: preventing one is worth more than measuring it.
You pay 25% only of what we actually recover. Nothing recovered = $0. No seats, no minimums, no setup fee.
No card required · We never store card data · Disconnect anytime
Illustrative sample — not Thaw's measured results. Your audit uses your own Stripe data.
Involuntary churn is the leak nobody watches. Here is precisely what Thaw does about it, what lands in your account, and what stays under your control — no call required to find out.
Not an industry estimate with your MRR plugged into it — we read your actual account. On connect we walk every subscription, every open and uncollectible invoice, every recent cancellation and every card nearing expiry, normalising annual, weekly and daily plans down to a monthly figure so the totals are genuinely comparable.
The audit is the opening picture. From then on Thaw watches the account continuously, so a leak is caught the hour it appears rather than surfacing in next month's numbers — and so leaks that resolve themselves close themselves.
Every message is drafted at the moment it's due, against that customer's live state — their plan, the amount, how long it's been outstanding, which step of the sequence this is, and why the card failed. So the second email never simply restates the first, and nothing goes out about a problem that's already fixed.
Hammering a declined card is how merchants quietly damage their relationship with the card networks. Thaw treats each retry as a scarce resource: it waits for the reason behind the decline to actually change, then spends the attempt.
Sending someone a raw processor link is where recoveries quietly die. Every message instead points at a hosted update-payment page that looks like you — your name, your monogram, your brand colour pulled from Stripe where you've set one. Thaw appears nowhere on it.
Some customers will never open a billing email but log into your product every day. Drop one script tag onto your own logged-in surface and those customers see their billing problem where they already are, in your voice.
A success fee is only trustworthy if you can audit it. Every dollar we claim traces back to a specific invoice, a specific customer, and the specific message or retry we attribute it to — and you can see the recoveries we chose not to claim.
We work out why the money stopped before doing anything about it. Same customer, different cause, opposite treatment — because chasing a stolen card and chasing an empty account should not look the same.
Insufficient funds, a processing blip, an issuer briefly unreachable. The money is probably coming — this is a timing problem, so emails and retries alternate deliberately. Each retry takes a fresh shot at the card; each email gets the customer to fix the underlying cause.
A subscription that was already past due joins this playbook partway in rather than starting from the top — the problem is older, so the sequence doesn't pretend it's new.
Lost, stolen, expired, reported fraudulent, or refused outright by the issuer. A card like this declines every single time, so retrying it achieves nothing and costs you standing with the networks. This playbook therefore contains no retries whatsoever.
Three genuine chances to replace the card, and zero wasted attempts against a card that cannot work.
The only leak that can be closed before it costs you anything. The schedule is anchored to the card's real expiry date rather than the day we happened to notice it, so each nudge lands when it's actually useful.
Find a card already expiring imminently and we send one reminder straight away rather than skipping the customer. And if the card networks quietly update the card themselves, we close the leak and take no credit for it.
Not a discount blast. A short, genuine note that asks what could have been better and leaves an easy path back — sent only to people it's actually reasonable to contact.
Cancellations tied to a dispute or suspected fraud are never contacted, and neither are relationships that ended too long ago to reach out about.
Sends are timed to land in your customer's morning wherever we know their timezone, and there is a hard ceiling on how many messages any single leak can ever generate.
The winback above reaches someone after they have already gone. This reaches them in the seconds before, while the subscription is still alive and the decision is still reversible — the one surface that runs on your site rather than in their inbox. Deliberate cancellation is a larger pool than failed payments, and the one thing your payment processor will never hand you for free.
You drop it into your own cancellation flow, so it appears at the exact moment someone tries to leave. Nothing is emailed and nothing is scheduled — it runs only because your customer opened the page themselves.
We ask why they're leaving from a short, fixed list, then route to the offer that addresses it: a discount for price, a pause for a temporary break, a downgrade for too much plan, a human for something broken. When nothing fits, we offer nothing and let them go — and no customer is ever offered more than twice in their life, six months apart.
Accepting an offer isn't a save, and neither is accepting one and leaving a week later. The subscription has to still be alive 30 days on before a single cent is billable — and if Stripe can't confirm it survived, we assume it didn't.
The same 25% success fee, charged on the revenue you actually keep rather than the price on the plan — discount a customer into staying and the fee follows that discount down. It is billed in two parts: one month once the save clears its 30-day confirmation window, two more if the subscription is still alive at day 90. Three months in total, then never again for that customer.
A success fee is only honest if it turns down the money it can't fairly claim. These exclusions are enforced in the billing engine itself, not left to good intentions.
If Stripe's own automatic retry collected the payment and we never retried it ourselves, that isn't our win — and you aren't charged for it.
When a card is silently updated by the card networks and none of our messages were in play, we close the leak and take no fee.
Money that lands long after our last action isn't plausibly ours to claim, so we don't claim it.
Refunds and chargebacks reverse the recovery. If we already invoiced the fee it's credited back — and a partial refund only reverses the fee on the part that was actually refunded.
A subscription brought back by a winback email is billed on its first month only — a reactivated annual plan never on the whole year. A deflected cancellation is billed separately, and capped too.
An offer accepted and then abandoned inside the 30-day confirmation window is not a save. Nothing is billed, and a customer who leaves after that takes the remaining months with them.
Keep a $100/mo customer with 50% off and you retain $50/mo, so the fee applies to $50. We never charge a percentage of money nobody received.
A deflected cancellation bills at most three months of retained value — one after the confirmation window, two more at day 90 — and nothing after that.
No seats, no minimums, no setup fee, no contract. A quiet month is a $0 invoice, not a subscription you forgot to cancel.
A rotating slice of eligible leaks is deliberately left untouched as a control group. Comparing those against the ones we work is the only way to know what Thaw genuinely added, rather than what Stripe's built-in retries would have collected on their own — so the lift figure on your dashboard is measured, not asserted. Expiring cards are never held back: getting ahead of those is too valuable to withhold from anyone.
Drag your MRR. It's the same math we run on your real Stripe data.
Illustrative, using industry benchmarks rather than Thaw's own results: ~6% of subscription revenue typically leaks to failed payments and involuntary churn. Stripe's own retries typically recover about 20% of that on their own — you keep that whether or not you use Thaw, and we never bill for it. A well-timed sequence lifts total recovery to around 40%, so the $2,880 above the baseline is what Thaw adds — and the only part our fee applies to. Actual figures vary by business; once you're live we measure your real lift against a holdout control group and bill on that, not on these estimates.
You're looking at your own numbers within minutes, and nothing reaches a customer until you decide it should.
Standard Stripe Connect OAuth — a few minutes, no engineering, nothing to install. We never see your API keys and never store card data. Stripe grants platforms a single access level, so its screen asks for read and write; the audit itself only reads, and nothing sends until you activate.
We scan your live account and hand back your annual leak, broken down by failed payments, expiring cards, past-due subscriptions and cancellations, with the customers behind every figure. Free, and yours to keep either way.
Grant send access as a separate step, pick your voice, and choose whether actions go out automatically or wait in the approval queue. Every recovery is attributed to the exact message or retry that earned it.
Thaw is built to run without you. That only earns trust if you can see everything it does and stop it at any point — so all of this ships on day one, not on a roadmap.
The audit only reads. Turning on sending and retrying is a separate, deliberate, logged step you take at activation — never a default, and never bundled into signing up.
Autopilot is off until you switch it on. Until then every email and every retry waits in a queue where you can read the actual message and approve or skip it, individually or in bulk.
Pick the tone and the sign-off, switch the second winback touch on or off, and give us the words we must never put in front of your customers.
Invite owners, approvers and viewers. Approvers can action the queue; viewers can see the numbers without being able to send anything.
Disconnect in one click. Scheduled actions are cancelled immediately, and your customers' data is purged after the retention window set out in our DPA. An owner can also erase a single customer's data on demand.
One monthly invoice, itemised against the recovered invoices behind it, exportable to CSV. Nothing to reconcile by hand and nothing to take on trust.
Illustrative industry benchmarks for subscription businesses.
of subscription churn is typically involuntary — failed payments, not lost interest.
Illustrative industry range — actual figures vary by business.
of failed payments can be recovered with a well-timed dunning sequence.
Illustrative range — recovery depends on cohort, timing, and card mix.
of expiring-card churn is preventable with proactive card-update nudges.
Illustrative range — not a guarantee of results in your account.
Figures above are illustrative industry ranges shown for context — not a promise of results and not Thaw's measured performance. Your free audit shows the actual numbers from your own Stripe data.
One number, charged one way: a share of money that came back and stayed back. We only make anything when you make something back.
recovered in a month
you keep
our fee, on one invoice
An illustrative example, not a projection. Recover nothing the following month and that invoice is $0 — and if a recovery is later refunded or charged back, the fee on it comes back to you.
No card required for the audit · Disconnect anytime